After the Vikings dominating win over the Commanders on Sunday, I have seen some debate break out online over whether it would be in the Vikings best interest to tank for a better draft pick, or continue to try to win to build confidence in JJ McCarthy going into the 2026 season. Let's outline each side of the argument:
Pro-Tanking
One of my theories as to why Minnesota sports seems to always lose in the first round is we're always stuck in that "not bad, but not great" purgatory. This argument especially pertains to the Wild and Vikings, who always seem to be picking somewhere between 11-25 in the first round. Since 2010, the Vikings have picked in the top 10 just three times. Looking back at some of their Top 10 picks in recent history, you have guys like Anthony Barr, Adrian Peterson, Kevin Williams and Bryant McKinnie who became cornerstone players for the Vikings. If you lose out and move into the top 10 you could look at drafting someone like defensive lineman David Bailey out of Texas Tech or safety Caleb Down out of Ohio State who are looking like the real deal in college. Plus, I know it took a lot of cracks to finally get a high draft pick right, but getting Anthony Edwards completely changed the trajectory of the Timberwolves. Byron Buxton has been a cornerstone player for the Twins. It feels like the Vikings are missing that cornerstone player on defense, like Jared Allen was in his prime, and this is their opportunity to go get that guy.
Anti-Tanking
The first argument is obvious: winning only helps build J.J. McCarthy's confidence going into 2026. We saw him get some big wins at Soldier Field (a win that keeps looking better and better) and Ford Field earlier this year. Going on the road on Sunday Night Football and beating the Cowboys, or beating the Packers or Lions at home could do wonders with his confidence and development. He still has only started in seven NFL games, most experts say you need 30 starts to know if a quarterback is going to make it or not. McCarthy isn't even a quarter of the way there if that's the case, and we've seen some flashes of what he can do. If he can put together a few more games like he did on Sunday, maybe we'll see all that potential come to fruition in 2026.
But the other argument is, what has Kwesi Adofo-Mensah shown that we should be confident he can pick the right player with a Top-10 pick? The 2022 Vikings draft class has gone down as one of the worst in history. Even taking out that class, it still hasn't been great. Yes, Jordan Addison has been solid. Dallas Turner is starting to turn a corner and show that he can be a really good player. But a big reason why the Vikings are in the spot they're in is because of failed draft picks. There are some signs pointing that Kwesi's draft classes are improving (there's no where to go but up after the 2022 class) but as a casual Vikings fan I can't say I'd feel great that he'd hit a home run with a top 10 pick.
Verdict: Keep Winning
Let's build some momentum going into 2026. Let's try to give J.J. every chance to take a big step in his second year as starter. Let's try to instill some confidence in Justin Jefferson that Minnesota is still the right place for him.
And then if next year is another disaster, blow it up and begin the full rebuild.
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