Week 4 is the week that we finally start to learn who a lot of teams are. Mostly everyone has played at least 1 P4 team. Some teams, like Duke and Mississippi State, already have 2 P4 games under their belts. While others, like Penn State and Indiana, have yet to play even 1 P4 team. For everyone else in between, we have ideas of who they are, but this weekend will confirm everything we think we know.
20 Oregon @ 12 USC (+2.5)
This game is so important for both teams. If Oregon loses, they are a 2 loss team before October. The chances of them making the playoff start to get real slim. If USC loses this game, it will be their first loss. That’s not a big deal, until you look at the rest of their schedule. They still have to face Ohio State and Indiana, and depending on how you feel about these teams, Penn State and UCLA. Both teams feel like they are in playoff or bust mode this season, which means they both need this game badly.
On paper Oregon is one of, if not, the most talented teams in the country. We have yet to see it this year. The defense was supposed to have the best defensive line in the country, paired with a great secondary. Neither has show up this year. Through 3 games this defensive line has 5 sacks and 10 TFL. Offensively there were concerns going into the season surrounding the offensive line. They’ve done nothing to quell those concerns as they’ve allowed 7 sacks and 10 TFL. This team has been a mess. The one bright spot has been the offense, even with a porous offensive line. They boast the 5th best scoring offense and the 7th best passing attack. Can the defense and the offensive line turn it around? Was losing Tosh Lupoi and Will Stein a bigger deal than most of us realized?
We heard all offseason that this year is different when it comes to the defense for USC. It was said so much that I started to believe. Turns out it was all a lie. This is the same Lincoln Riley led team we see every year. An elite offense paired with a booty cheeks defense that can’t tackle. Rutgers, one of the worst offenses in the country, had over 450 yards of offense and scored 35 points. That doesn’t sound like a defense that has turned the corner under Lincoln Riley. If this is the same USC team that we’ve seen every year under Lincoln, is he on the hot seat?
This weekend we learn whether Oregon is Penn State from last year, or if they are Alabama. We also will learn if last weekend vs Rutgers was a fluke, or if this is the same old USC team. I fully expect a lot of points in this one just based off of recent history, and what we’ve seen so far this season. I will take Oregon to win solely off the fact that they are the more talented team on paper, and at some point that talent has to show up.
17 Iowa @ 18 Michigan (-5.5)
I mean these teams are the exact same, right? On one hand you have Iowa who has a great defense, can run the ball, and has iffy QB play. On the other hand you have Michigan who has a great defense, can run the ball, and has iffy QB play. These teams are exactly the same. I feel like I know what I’m getting from these teams, but we still have questions.
Iowa, like most teams, has played only 1 P4 team. That team is Iowa State. No one, and I mean NO ONE, thought we would see any life from Iowa State this season. We all thought that and yet, Iowa struggled to move the ball against them. So does that mean Iowa State is better than we all thought? Or is Iowa’s offense just that bad yet again? We will find out this weekend when they take on Michigan.
Speaking of Michigan, this offense is bad. I think we can all agree that it’s not good. The defense however has been impressive this season. Take a second though and look at who they’ve played. Western Michigan, UTEP, and Oklahoma. I feel confident in saying that Western Michigan and UTEP do not have elite offenses. I also feel pretty confident that Oklahoma does not have an elite offense. Is Michigan’s defense really good? Or have they just played a ton of bad offenses?
Even though we don’t fully know, I do feel like Michigan has a very good defense and Iowa’s offense is just meh. This game is going to be led by both defenses. The question becomes, which QB can break through and have a better game? I’ve seen enough from Bryce Underwood that I don’t have faith in him. It feels crazy to say this, but there is a very good chance that Iowa might win this game.
1 Texas @ 14 Tennessee (+4.5)
Arch Manning headed to Knoxville where his uncle is forever loved and adored. Neyland Stadium is going to be rocking, and the fans are going to be LOUD. This is a game and an atmosphere I would love to be apart of. We have a pretty good idea of who Texas is after they knocked off Ohio State at home, but who is Tennessee this year?
Is Tennessee actually any good? Or are they the product of an easy schedule so far? I think both can be true. They’ve played Furman, Kennesaw State, and a bad Georgia Tech team. They’ve also looked very good in the process. What I want to see is how much better is Tennessee’s defense this season? They are obviously better, but how much better? It’s hard to say when you look at the offenses they’ve had to face. Now Texas is far from an elite offense so far this season, but they are leaps and bounds better than what Tennessee has seen this year.
When most people think of a Josh Heupel offense, they think a pass first, pass heavy offense. That couldn’t be further from the truth. His offenses have always been run first and they’ve been damn good at it too. Tennessee is going to try and establish the run early and often. Texas has the dudes to slow the run game down. The key for Tennessee will be their true freshman QB Faizon Brandon. So far he’s looked good against Furman and Kennesaw State, but he struggled against Georgia Tech. Despite that, the one thing he really hasn’t done this season is turn the ball over. That is huge for a true freshman QB. If he is able to make plays with his arm and legs without turning the ball over, Tennessee will win this game. I lean Texas as of right now, but I am not confident in that pick.
4 Ole Miss @ 21 Florida (-3.5)
Everyone think this will be a hangover game for Ole Miss. Me? I am not so easily convinced. While yes Florida has looked amazing this year, who have they played? Campbell, FAU, and Auburn. Not exactly a murderer’s row. This weekend we will find out just how good this Florida Gator’s team is.
Buster Faulkner and Aaron Philo have been a Godsend for Florida’s offense. So far through 3 weeks they are 3rd in total offense and 2nd in scoring. Compare that to last year when they were 104th and 111th respectively. Jadan Baugh has been a menace, the WRs have thrived, but the jury is still out on the offensive line. On the defensive side of the ball they’ve been great against the run, but susceptible to the pass. They are now going up against an Ole Miss offense that loves to throw the ball, and a Ole Miss defense that has some dudes on their defensive line. We are about to learn just how good this Florida offensive line and secondary are.
Ole Miss will go as far as Trinidad Chambliss takes them. I am convinced that if you switched out Trinidad with almost any other QB in the country, that they would’ve lost to Louisville and LSU. He is that special. If he has an off game, Ole Miss loses. If Ole Miss makes the playoff, it’s because he put the team on his back and brought them there. As long as he can keep doing that, Ole Miss will keep winning. As high as I am on Florida, and as high as I am on Jon Sumrall, I cannot ever pick against Trinidad Chambliss. Give me Ole Miss in this one.
This weekend is going to be a very exciting weekend now that everyone is officially getting into conference play. We finally start to learn who’s for real and who’s not. There are also a handful of teams that are currently ranked, that will not be by the end of the year. Some of which we will look back, shake out heads, and wonder how they were ever ranked to begin with. Who are some of the teams that you think could be unranked next week?
