Week 6 is upon us, and it feels like just yesterday we were watching UNC and TCU in Dublin. The season is just flying by. This weekend looks like it’s going to be a very exciting week of football, so let’s break this weekend down.
Biggest Game: Georgia at Alabama -1.5
Will they or won’t they? That’s the biggest question surrounding this game. Will they play the game, or will they postpone/move it? For those unaware, there is a hurricane set to hit Alabama Friday night. Right now it looks the game will continue forward at its original time, but it might be a sloppy game. Georgia vs Alabama is always a big time matchup, and this one is no different. We’ve got the top 2 scoring teams in the country going at it.
Alabama’s offense has been steam rolling everyone this season. As a team they are averaging nearly 50 points a game and 470+ yards of offense a game, but this will be the best defense that Alabama has had to face so far. Going into the season everyone wanted to know if Alabama was able to fix the run game and their offensive line. So far the run game looks much improved. The offensive line however does not have me convinced. I’ve heard people try and tell me they are much improved, but I don’t buy it yet. They are still allowing too many sacks and too many TFL for me to be convinced. This will be the ultimate test.
For Georgia, this won’t come as a shock, the defense has been amazing. They also have not faced any offenses that really scare you though. This will be the biggest test for this defense. That is not where my biggest worry is for Georgia though. My biggest concern is on offense. The biggest criticism of Georgia’s offense last season was that they did not push the ball down the field. They had too many passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. That was something I/we needed to see improvement on going into the year. So far we have not really seen that. This is still a passing game that has too many passes that are close or. whims the line of scrimmage. Can Alabama’s defense force Gunner Stockton to push the ball down the field? If so, can he have success doing so?
What this game will come down to is the success of each team’s Quarterback. Are you putting your faith in the QB who is making his 6th career start and facing his biggest test so far? Or are you putting your faith in the veteran QB who’s seen it all at this point? I personally am putting my faith behind Georgia in this one. I think they are the better team and it will show.
Ugly Game: Indiana at Nebraska +7.5
Both of these teams are undefeated, yet the perception of both teams could not be more different. Indiana is viewed as a national title contender, while Nebraska isn’t even being considered as a legitimate contender in the Big Ten. They currently have the 6th best odds to make the Big Ten Championship. This weekend is the Cornhusker’s chance to show they belong.
Through 5 games, Nebraska has found quite a bit of success on the ground with Jamal Rule, Anthony Colandrea, and Mekhi Nelson. They are 17th in the country in rush yards a game. One the surface that sounds great, until you look deeper and see that Maryland is the best run defense (66th) that they’ve faced so far. This is a run game that really has not been tested yet, and now they have to go up against Indiana’s run defense which ranks 7th. We’re about to see just how good this run game is for Nebraska.
On the flip side, Nebraska’s defense has been very good against the run. They are 30th in rush yards allowed. Again on the surface that looks great, but when you look deeper, the best rushing attack they’ve gone against is Ohio (43rd). This defense has not been pushed by a team with a good run game until now. Indiana is 9th in rush yards, and 5th in yards per carry. Turbo Richard and Lee Beebe both have over 500 yards this season, and each one has a 200+ yard game this season. This is an Indiana team that like to run it, and they run it well.
Some will make this argument that this is also Indiana’s biggest test as well. Technically they aren’t wrong, but the level of competition is higher than what Nebraska has faced this season. If Nebraska’s run game/run defense is legit, they have a shot. If it’s the product of an easy schedule though, this game could get out of hand and turn ugly. I think Indiana runs away with this one.
Underrated Game: LSU at Kentucky +8.5
LSU at Kentucky is not being talked about as a big game. Makes sense, Kentucky is historically not a good team and LSU is. Both of these teams are 4-1 though which on paper means it should be a good game?
LSU is a pretty heavy favorite in this one even though they are in the road. You look at this LSU offense and defense, and you almost think they should be favored by more. Don’t sleep in this Kentucky offense though. They are a well balanced offense with a very good o-line. Kenny Minchey has been great this season and has been very good at not turning the ball over. I don’t doubt that they can get some points in the board. The Kentucky defense however needs some work. It’s very possible that this LSU offense torches them.
There are a few things that work in Kentucky’s favor though. The first being that Sam Leavitt has been turnover prone. He has thrown at least one interception in every game this season. If Kentucky can get one or two turnovers out of Leavitt, they can keep this close. Secondly, Lane Kiffin has a game every season that his team should win, but they don’t show up. We just saw this last season when Ole Miss traveled to Kentucky. That was a game that Ole Miss was supposed to win easily, and Kentucky was able to keep it much closer than expected.
At first glance this is a game that LSU should win easily. With Lane Kiffin’s track record and Sam Leavitt’s turnovers, Kentucky could keep this one interesting all the way through. I am taking LSU to win, but I’m not comfortable taking them to cover.
Important Game: USC at Penn State -1.5
USC travels across the country to take on a struggling Penn State team. This game is so important for both teams. For Penn State, they are 0-2 to start Big Ten play which is not a great start for the Matt Campbell era. For USC, they also haven’t looked great to start Big Ten play and need this game to stay alive in the conference title/playoff birth race.
Penn State started the season 3-0 with no games played against P4 opponents. As soon as they started Big Ten play, the offense completely disappeared. Koby Howard has been out for the start of Big Ten play, and Rocco Becht is struggling in his absence. It’s definitely concerning that losing your top WR details the offense this badly. That’s not a good sign moving forward as Howard looks to be out until possibly November.
On the bright side for Penn State, they are facing a USC who not only has a pitiful defense, but has struggled when they’ve had to travel east. All of that, plus this being a white out game, is why Penn State is a slight favorite in this one. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Penn State’s offense show a little more life this week. If USC can get the run game rolling, they will win this game. If not, then Penn State will have every chance to win this. I will take Penn State to rebound and all but end USC’s playoff hopes. I’m not confident in the pick, but I’m not confident in USC either.
Exciting Game: Arizona at WVU +3.5
This game has a chance to be a high scoring, back and forth game, or a complete blowout. Every game West Virginia has played has a been a higher scoring affair. So far through 5 games the average total points is a smidge over 66 points. If you’re a betting man/woman, the overs in games West Virginia plays is probably a win more often than not.
West Virginia’s offense thrives running the ball. The dynamic duo of Cam Cook and Michael Hawkins Jr. has been unstoppable. Where they don’t thrive, is throwing the ball. The passing game has been very lackluster. They are facing an Arizona defense that has a great run defense, and a secondary that is leaky. If Arizona is able to shut down this run game, is West Virginia able to take advantage and move the ball through the air?
On the other side of the ball, West Virginia has been terrible. They cannot stop anyone, especially if the other team can sling it. They are going up against an Arizona offense that is pass first/pass heavy, and they are very good at it. Unfortunately for Arizona, they are without their top 3 receivers in this game. So we may see the Wildcats try and run it more. Before last weekend, they really had not had a run game to speak of. With the injuries to their WRs, they were able to get a run game going bs Cincinnati. Is that a trend moving forward for Arizona?
West Virginia really hasn’t played a defense that can shut down their run game. Is this the week that finally happens? I tend to believe no. I think Arizona will have no problem scoring, and West Virginia will score enough to keep this one exciting. Regardless of whether is this is a back and forth game or a blowout, I think Arizona wins.
This weekend has everything you want in college football. It’s got enough of the big, high profile games. It’s also got a deep slate of games that could be considered underrated. I’m very excited for this weekend. What’re some of the games you’re most excited for that I did not touch on?
