Five games is an incredibly small sample, so none of these tiers should be viewed as definitive.
Still, the HockeyStatCards data gives us a little more to work with than goals and assists alone. Who is driving play? Who is defending well? Who has been getting results that match the eye test?
Through five games, there are some pretty obvious standouts.
A Quick Note on the HockeyStatCards Data
Before getting into the individual players, a quick explanation of what HockeyStatCards numbers actually mean.
HockeyStatCards uses data from Natural Stat Trick to create a Game Score that attempts to measure a player’s overall impact beyond simply looking at goals and assists. The model takes into account several areas, including offensive production and scoring chances, 5-on-5 play driving, special teams, defensive contributions and usage.
Generally speaking, a positive number means a player had a positive impact, while a negative number suggests the opposite. The further the number gets from zero in either direction, the stronger the performance, good or bad.
The season-long card then combines those performances to show a player’s overall impact so far, including separate offensive and defensive ratings.
Like any advanced statistic, Game Score isn’t meant to tell us everything about a player. Five games is also an incredibly small sample. But when we combine these numbers with traditional stats and what we’re actually watching on the ice, they give us another useful tool for evaluating who has truly played well and who may be struggling despite what the scoresheet says.
With that out of the way, let’s get into the tiers.
Tier 1: Couldn’t Have Asked for Much More
Kirill Kaprizov
Six goals. Eight points. Not much else needs to be said.
Kaprizov has once again been the engine of the offense, and the underlying numbers back it up. His cumulative HockeyStatCards net rating sits at +2.1, including positive contributions both offensively (+1.1) and defensively (+1.0).
The most encouraging part might be what happened in Florida. Kaprizov finished with a 3.59 game score while recording a hat trick and four points.
There were questions entering the season about how Kaprizov would adjust without Mats Zuccarello permanently attached to his line.
So far? Just fine.
Quinn Hughes
Seven points in five games would be ridiculous production for a forward. Hughes is doing it from the blue line.
But this isn’t just about points. His +2.4 cumulative net rating is second among Wild skaters, trailing only Jared Spurgeon, and HockeyStatCards grades Hughes positively at both ends of the ice.
His individual game scores tell the same story: 2.57, 1.66, 2.04, 3.52 and 1.10.
Five games. Five positive performances.
We’ve talked endlessly about how losing Brock Faber would impact Hughes. Apparently Hughes didn’t get the memo.
Jared Spurgeon
If there’s one player whose start deserves more attention, it’s the captain. Spurgeon has five points in five games and leads Minnesota at plus-4.
Analytically? Even better.
His +2.6 net rating leads every Wild skater, including Hughes and Kaprizov. His offensive rating sits at +1.5 and his defensive rating at +1.1.
He also posted monster individual game scores of 3.91 against Tampa Bay and 3.04 against Florida.
With Faber unavailable, Minnesota desperately needed Spurgeon to prove he could handle a larger role alongside Hughes. Five games in, he’s done considerably more than simply survive.
Jesper Wallstedt
Maybe the biggest development of the young season.
Wallstedt has the crease with Filip Gustavsson unavailable, and all he’s done is provide the Minnesota Wild with consistently strong goaltending.
His cumulative HockeyStatCards rating is +6.6, while his five individual games have registered scores of 1.10, 0.83, 1.32, 0.75 and 2.19.
Not one negative performance. And his best game came most recently against Florida.
Wallstedt entered this season with an enormous opportunity. He’s taking advantage of it.
Tier 2: The Underlying Numbers Say More Is Coming
Matt Boldy
Two points through five games doesn’t look particularly impressive. Dig a little deeper.
Boldy leads the Minnesota Wild with 23 shots on goal and carries a +1.0 net rating according to HockeyStatCards.
Then look at his last two games. Against Tampa Bay: 1.52, best among Wild forwards. Against Florida: 3.60, again best among Wild forwards. Yes, even slightly ahead of the guy who scored a hat trick.
That tells me Boldy is doing almost everything right except getting rewarded on the scoresheet. Keep generating chances like this and the points will come.
Joel Eriksson Ek
Here’s another player where traditional statistics don’t tell the entire story.
Eriksson Ek hasn’t scored yet and has only two assists. His cumulative HockeyStatCards rating? +0.9. More importantly, his defensive rating is +0.6 and he’s put 14 shots on goal.
His last two performances have also been excellent: 1.37 against Tampa Bay and 2.52 against Florida.
The Minnesota Wild don’t need to worry about Eriksson Ek. The goals will arrive.
Michael McCarron
This might be my biggest surprise.
McCarron has three assists and is plus-3 while continuing to handle fourth-line responsibilities.
HockeyStatCards has him at +0.5 overall, with positive offensive and defensive impacts. He also produced game scores of 2.08 against Nashville, 2.35 against Boston and 1.06 in Buffalo.
For a fourth-line center whose primary responsibilities are faceoffs, physicality and responsible hockey, that’s excellent.
Nick Foligno
Another member of that fourth line who deserves some love.
Foligno sits at +0.5 overall, driven primarily by a +0.5 defensive rating.
His debut against Nashville was particularly impressive, producing a 2.16 game score, the highest among Wild forwards that night. That’s exactly what the Minnesota Wild brought him here to do.
Tier 3: Encouraging Start, More To Come
Danila Yurov
Yurov has one goal and one assist through five games. Nothing spectacular. Nothing concerning.
But his +0.5 overall rating is encouraging, especially because his +0.9 defensive impact is one of the strongest marks among Minnesota Wild forwards.
We’ve talked all offseason about needing Yurov’s offense to take a significant step. That still applies.
But if the defensive foundation is already this strong, John Hynes can afford to be patient while the offense develops.
Maxim Shabanov
Three points in his first five games is a perfectly respectable start.
The analytics are also positive. Shabanov sits at +0.2 overall, with both his offense and defense grading positively.
His best performance came in Buffalo, where his 1.45 game score led every Wild forward.
We’ve already seen the creativity. We’ve seen him score. We’ve seen him contribute on the power play. Now it’s about consistency.
Blake Coleman
Coleman has two goals and three points through five games while carrying a slightly positive +0.1 overall rating.
His numbers aren’t spectacular yet, but neither are they concerning.
The Minnesota Wild brought Coleman here to complement Boldy and Eriksson Ek while contributing on special teams and providing some additional scoring.
So far, he’s doing his job.
Tier 4: Let’s Give It Some Time
Bobby Brink
Here’s where the analytics and traditional production conflict a little.
Three assists in five games looks good.
His -0.4 HockeyStatCards rating doesn’t.
The defensive number (-0.3) and overall play-driving results leave something to be desired.
It’s far too early to worry, particularly given his limited minutes, but Brink is a player I’m going to watch closely over the next several games.
Jonas Brodin
Nobody should judge Brodin based on offensive production.
That’s never been his game.
Still, a -0.8 overall rating isn’t what we’re accustomed to seeing from one of Minnesota’s most dependable defensive players.
The encouraging part is that his defensive component remains positive (+0.5). It’s his offensive/play-driving number dragging the overall rating down. Given Brodin’s track record, I’m not particularly concerned.
Olli Maatta
Similar story. Maatta sits essentially around neutral at -0.1 overall.
Considering the increased responsibility he was expected to absorb following Faber’s injury, I’ll take that.
He’s not being asked to become Quinn Hughes. He’s being asked to keep Minnesota’s second defensive pairing stable.
Tier 5: Need More
Ryan Hartman
This is the easiest one. Hartman has one assist, four shots and is minus-3 through five games.
The advanced numbers are worse.
His -1.7 overall rating is the lowest among Minnesota Wild forwards, including a -1.1 defensive rating.
Individual game scores: -0.54, -1.95, 0.41, -1.84 and -0.33.
Four negative games out of five.
Hartman is in a contract year and entered this season with plenty of motivation. The Wild need significantly more than this.
Yakov Trenin
Nobody expects Trenin to become an offensive star. But zero points and a -0.9 net rating isn’t enough.
Interestingly, HockeyStatCards actually gives Trenin a slightly positive defensive impact (+0.1). The problem has been his -1.0 offensive rating.
Keep hitting everything that moves. Keep killing penalties. But eventually, Minnesota needs some offense from that line too.
Daemon Hunt
This one has been rough. Hunt carries a -1.3 overall rating, the lowest among Minnesota Wild defensemen.
After a strong 1.52 game score in Nashville, he’s posted -1.33, -0.71, -1.54 and -1.26. That’s four consecutive negative performances.
Faber’s injury created an opportunity for Hunt to establish himself as an everyday NHL defenseman.
He hasn’t lost that opportunity after five games. But he hasn’t grabbed it yet either.
Zach Bogosian
Bogosian hasn’t fared much better.
His -1.1 overall rating ranks slightly ahead of Hunt, and his individual game scores have included -1.16 against Boston and -2.35 against Tampa Bay.
Nobody needs Bogosian driving Minnesota’s offense. But the bottom pairing needs to provide dependable minutes without getting buried. That’s something worth watching over the next several games.
Minnesota Wild Five-Game MVPs
If I’m ranking the Wild’s five best players through five games, weighing both production and HockeyStatCards, my list is:
1. Kirill Kaprizov
Six goals and eight points. He’s still the superstar everything revolves around.
2. Jesper Wallstedt
Minnesota needed someone to stabilize the crease with Gustavsson unavailable. Wallstedt has been excellent.
3. Quinn Hughes
Seven points and five consecutive positive HockeyStatCards performances despite losing his regular defensive partner before the season even began.
4. Jared Spurgeon
Five points, plus-4 and the best cumulative net rating among Wild skaters at +2.6.
5. Matt Boldy
The points haven’t arrived yet, but 23 shots and consecutive dominant underlying performances suggest they’re coming very soon.
Overall Pulse: Encouraging
Here’s probably the statistic I find most interesting from the cumulative card:
Minnesota ranks just 17th offensively by HockeyStatCards’ model through five games.
Defensively? 5th.
Overall net rating? 5th.
That’s encouraging.
The Wild are 3-1-1 and have collected seven of 10 available points without the offense firing on all cylinders.
Boldy hasn’t gotten hot yet. Eriksson Ek hasn’t scored. Yurov still has another offensive level to reach. Shabanov is still adjusting. And Minnesota is doing all of this without Brock Faber.
Five games isn’t enough to declare this team a true Cup contender.
But it’s more than enough for a pulse check. And right now? The pulse is pretty damn strong.
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