Let me get something out of the way right from the beginning.
I like Danila Yurov. A lot.
I think he has a chance to become a really good player for the Minnesota Wild. His start to this season has only made me more confident in that belief.
But if the Detroit Red Wings call Bill Guerin tomorrow and Danila Yurov is the piece standing between the Wild and Dylan Larkin, I’m still making the trade.
The Larkin Rumors Aren’t Going Away
For months, Dylan Larkin has felt like the obvious trade target for the Wild. Now the smoke is getting awfully thick.
ESPN’s John Buccigross recently said on Frankly Hockey that he believes a trade is coming out of Detroit within the next seven to 10 days. When Frank Seravalli asked him directly if he was talking about Larkin, Buccigross didn’t exactly leave much room for interpretation. “Yeah, Larkin. Larkin. That’s coming.”
That’s obviously not the same thing as saying Larkin is coming to Minnesota. But after an entire offseason of rumors connecting Larkin and the Wild, this certainly feels like something worth paying attention to.
And naturally, the conversation in Minnesota has once again turned to what the Wild should be willing to give up.
That’s where things have changed. A few months ago, including Yurov in a package for Larkin seemed uncomfortable, but understandable.
Now? I’m seeing more and more Wild fans suggesting Yurov should be untouchable.
I understand why. I just don’t agree with it.
Daniel Yurov Has Been Good
Let’s give Yurov the credit he deserves. Through nine games, he has four goals and five points. He’s scoring, he’s looking more dangerous offensively, and he appears much more comfortable than he did at times during his rookie season.
Remember, Yurov finished last season with 12 goals and 27 points in 73 games. Five points through nine games represents a significant step forward. That’s exciting. It’s also nine games.
Yurov is shooting 26.7 percent right now. That’s obviously not going to continue forever. His increased production is encouraging, but we need to separate development from arrival.
Yurov developing into a good NHL center does not mean the Wild suddenly have their long-term No. 1 center problem solved. He’s 22 years old. There is absolutely a world where Yurov eventually becomes a 60 or even 70-point player, especially if he’s consistently playing with someone like Kirill Kaprizov or Matt Boldy.
I hope that happens. But we’re talking about projection. With Larkin, we’re talking about production.
Larkin Already Is What We’re Hoping Yurov Becomes
This is where I think some of the conversation has gotten a little ridiculous. Larkin has one goal and three points through his first six games this season. That’s not good.
He also entered the season dealing with an upper-body injury, missed Detroit’s first two games and returned to a franchise where his relationship with the organization has completely deteriorated. He requested a trade. He was stripped of the captaincy. His future has been publicly dissected for months.
Believe it or not, hockey players are human beings. This isn’t NHL 27 where you drop a player into the lineup, his overall rating stays the same and none of the chaos happening around him matters.
Maybe Larkin’s slow start is a sign of decline. It’s possible. But I’d be much more willing to bet that probably the most miserable stretch of his professional career isn’t the best environment for evaluating what kind of hockey player Dylan Larkin still is.
Because the larger sample tells a much different story. Larkin had 67 points last season. He had 70 the year before that. Before that: 69 and 79. That’s four straight seasons hovering around the 70-point level. He has also scored at least 30 goals in each of those four seasons.
That’s not theoretical upside. That’s an established No. 1 center.
Yes, There Is Risk
This isn’t a slam-dunk decision without consequences.
Larkin is 30. Yurov is 22. Larkin already opened this season dealing with an injury, while Yurov might have another decade-plus of NHL hockey ahead of him. And Larkin’s contract runs through the 2030-31 season at an $8.7 million cap hit.
All of those things matter. If the Wild were rebuilding, I’d probably feel completely differently about this.
But they’re not.
Kirill Kaprizov is in his prime. Matt Boldy is in his prime. Quinn Hughes is in his prime.
The Wild shouldn’t be constructing their roster around what it might look like five years from now. They should be trying to win the Stanley Cup. Now.
And if we’re talking specifically about the next three or four seasons, who gives Minnesota the better chance of doing that? Dylan Larkin or Danila Yurov?
To me, the answer is obvious.
What Is Yurov’s Realistic Ceiling?
This is probably where Wild fans will disagree with me the most.
I think Danila Yurov is going to be a really good NHL player. I’m just not convinced he’s going to become a superstar.
My guess is that his eventual sweet spot lands somewhere around 50 to 60 points. Maybe he settles in as a very good second-line center who can move up the lineup when needed.
That’s an extremely valuable player. Could he exceed that? Absolutely. Put him next to Kaprizov or Boldy for several years and maybe we’re eventually talking about a 65 or 70-point center.
But there are a lot of “maybes” involved.
Yurov currently has five points in nine games. While that’s good, we didn’t discover the next Connor McDavid. And I think some of us need to pump the brakes just a little bit.
Think About What Larkin Would Actually Change
This is the part of the conversation that sometimes gets lost. You’re not trading for the name “Dylan Larkin.” You’re trading for what putting Dylan Larkin into this lineup does to everybody else.
Suddenly the Wild have a legitimate top-line center capable of playing with Kaprizov. They can put Larkin with Kaprizov and allow Boldy to drive another line. Or put Larkin with Boldy and force opponents to choose which elite scoring line they’re going to focus on.
You’re adding another player who can skate, transport the puck, score 30 goals, play on the power play and handle heavy minutes.
That’s the kind of center the Wild have spent years trying to find. And historically, those players aren’t exactly sitting around waiting for you in free agency.
When one becomes available and you’re trying to win a Stanley Cup, sometimes you have to give up something you really like to get something you desperately need.
Yurov’s Start Changes The Price. It Doesn’t Change The Goal.
Here’s where Yurov’s hot start does matter. It should strengthen Minnesota’s position.
If Detroit wants Yurov, great. Then the rest of the package needs to reflect the fact that Minnesota isn’t tossing in some unproven lottery ticket anymore.
He’s a 22-year-old former first-round pick who has already shown he can play in the NHL and whose trajectory appears to be pointing upward.
That has value. But value and untouchability aren’t the same thing.
If Detroit wants Yurov plus multiple premium prospects plus multiple first-round picks? No thanks.
If we’re talking about Yurov as the centerpiece of a reasonable package for Larkin? I’m listening. And I’m probably doing it.
The Wild’s Window Is Open
This really comes down to one question. What are we trying to accomplish?
If the goal is to build a competitive hockey team for the next decade, keep Yurov and see what happens.
If the goal is to maximize the next several seasons and give this current core its best possible chance to win a Stanley Cup, Larkin makes considerably more sense.
There is nothing wrong with being excited about Danila Yurov. I am.
There is nothing wrong with believing his ceiling is higher than what we’ve seen so far. I do.
But prospects and young players have a funny way of becoming untouchable the second they start producing. Sometimes you have to take off the prospect goggles.
Maybe Yurov becomes Dylan Larkin someday. Maybe he becomes even better. Maybe we’re all looking back at this five years from now wondering how anyone could have suggested trading him.
That’s the risk.
But maybe Yurov becomes exactly what I think he’s going to become: a really good 50-to-60-point NHL center. Meanwhile, Dylan Larkin already is the player Minnesota has spent years looking for.
The Wild finally have the stars. They finally have a roster where winning the Stanley Cup feels like something more than a fantasy.
If the price of turning a good team into a legitimate contender is giving up a really good young player, that’s the kind of uncomfortable decision a team with championship aspirations has to be willing to make.
I love Danila Yurov. I’d still trade him for Dylan Larkin.
